If there's one fight MMA fans want to see, it's the rematch between BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre. It's been more than two years since their first battle at UFC 58, but you wouldn't know it considering that debates on MMA forums over their first battle run hot on a 24/7 basis.
Here are the typical arguments:
"GSP only won by lay and pray!"
"BJ did more damage!"
"BJ would have won if he was in shape!"
and finally...
"EYE POKE!"
Given that both fighters are fan favorites and top 5 pound for pound fighters, and especially since the first match was somewhat controversial, it's safe to say that this is the biggest MMA fight of all time, at least for the hard core fans. People will complain about BJ getting a welterweight title shot ahead of contenders like Diego Sanchez and Thiago Alves, and that the rematch throws the lighweight division into flux. But let's get real: every serious MMA fan in the world is going to be watching this fight.
A lot of attention has been drawn to the prospect of UFC Champion Randy Couture taking on Pride legend Fedor Emelianenko, but I have a hard time believing that it will be a very competitive match. While Randy often draws up brilliant game plans and has made a career of shocking people who counted him out, Fedor is simply too explosive and has too good a stand up game for Randy to handle.
However, BJ-GSP 2 will likely be a much more competitive fight - both fighters are clearly in there primes and are no doubt #1 in their weight classes. They each lead a thundering herd of enthusiastic fans and in fact, BJ's following in Hawaii is so big that he might headline a stadium show there. The UFC is also likely to be very aggressive in marketing this fight, with MMARated.com reporting that BJ-GSP 2 will receive a major multi-part documentary treatment.
So with all that good stuff in mind, let's look at the rematch, which is expected to occur on January 31, 2009 during Super Bowl weekend.
For BJ to win, he's going to have to hurt GSP because the odds do not favor a decision victory for the Hawaiian. BJ is likely to have a 'take one to give one' attitude during this fight, so he'll have to really get inside and be aggressive to do some damage. As far as submissions go, the fact that the fight is 5 rounds may actually favor BJ because he will have more time to catch GSP making a mistake.
But ultimately, this match will come down to GSP's takedowns. If he can consistently take BJ down while effectively defending against the Prodigy's submission attempts, he's very likely to win by decision. On the question of BJ's conditioning, he'll likely come into this fight in excellent shape but there is zero question that Georges will have better conditioning.
At the end of the day, I'd expect Georges to come away the victor at least 6 out of 10 times. BJ is a uniquely skilled fighter with unparalleled flexibility, a granite chin, and a knack for avoiding damage on the ground, but GSP has the ability to overpower him with sheer, brute force.
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7 comments - click to add yours!:
GSP has no shot against BJ. BJ will take him apart standing and if he's in shape GSP won't take him down much.
Even though I see Penn Finishing Penn somehow. I do like and appreciate your fair and balanced critique. kudos
BJ Can take the first round or two but he will gas out after that. He has amazing talent but he needs to stay fresh to beat George and that will be a major challenge
I'd say that Penn has a chance to land something and hurt GSP in the first couple of rounds, but it should be against the GSP controlled flow of the match. George is a more effective (though probably less powerful) striker, better at takedowns, and better at avoiding takedowns, and he's got amazing ground control and submission defense.
Further, I'd agree that the first GSP v BJ fight was controversial, and I'd have probably given the decision to Penn, but I think that GSP has constantly had to fight top guys and has had to improve with every fight, while BJ dropped weight and fought smaller, lesser opponents.
A couple of years ago, these two guys were somewhat level - right now, GSP has ascended to another level and should dominate Penn from start to finish.
Good analysis. Both of these guys are in the top five at least with regard to P4P rankings- as they should be. I think claims of either fighter "dominating" the other are ridiculous. Make no mistake they will both show up in supreme shape and it'll be a matter of who can exert their will and gameplan on who; but it won't be easy for either of them.
With that said- I think GSP wins it. I believe he's had much tougher tests since their first fight and has exponentially evolved since their first fight. Penn has certainly improved- particularly in conditioning but his opponents don't exactly create a compelling list of challengers.
GSP man handled John Fitch....
And john fitch man handles other guys no problem.
It was a 5 rounder, but anyone who saw that fight, knew GSP wanted to put on a show. Could've ended around 2-3
He could have choked out Fitch numerous times after knocking him to the ground.
GSP keeps fighting bigger guys in Welter, Penn keeps fighting lightweights...GSP will have advantage.
If you spend a year training with a 75LBS punching bag, I don't care how hard you can hit it, once you go to 100LBS bag...its gonna be a difference.
ok there is one flaw in quite a few of several peoples comments like bj being out powered by pierre which is hard to beleive when machida was,'t able to out power bj at 205 and gracie could,'t out power bj at 185 so there in it self is a flaw now pierre fighting better opponents is a laugh cause first off they both faught sherk and pierre couldn't put sherk away in a 3 round fight yet bj broke sherks will to fight at the end of 3 also what yeah fitch is a good fighter but thats only one fighter and he may have been able to take out fitch but he didn't and matt hughs well he was already out the door with his bags packed. but look at penn vs joe daddy he could have also took him out in the first round but he didn't. and pulver was easily arm barred but was released cause bj wanted to punish him.both fighter have a punchers chance and this will be a great fight but the only way i see penn losing is by decision and i can see bj either catching the french canadian on the chin.
1 stand up i give to bj
2 wresteling i give to pierre
3 grappling i give to penn
4 muscle power is a toss up
5 conditioning i give a slight advantage to pierre
6 mentle game i give to penn
7 chin penn
8 sheer detemination to winn depends on what fighters show up
i see a all out war but i can see penn winning this in the 3rd or 4th by either knock out or sub
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