Okay, time to get down to business. I was pretty happy with the results of my fight picks for http://www.mmaeruption.com/2008/10/mma-eruption-almost-wins-ufc-fantasy.html and
UFC 90, and I'm looking to do even better with UFC 91. With that event coming up this Saturday, it's time to dig into the fight card.
Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar - I'm finding myself at a loss when trying to pick a winner in this brains vs. brawn matchup. There are so many variables at play that my head is spinning.
We just don't know much about Brock. He's big, fast, and strong, but we don't know if he can take a punch, and how comfortable he is on the bottom defending. Randy's had a lot of big wins in his career, but he's also had trouble with some big guys, namely Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriquez. However, both those guys had vastly superior technical skill sets relative to Brock Lesnar.
This match will come down to Randy's ability to get Brock in the clinch, and how Lesnar reacts once he's put there. If Brock freezes up when Randy pressures him, it's game over. My gut tells me Randy survives an early storm from Brock, then begins to take over in Round 3, squeaking out a decision victory.
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson - Now this is a match I'm really looking forward to. I have
my doubts about the consensus view that Kenny is a top lightweight, and he certainly might prove me wrong on Saturday night.
From a skills standpoint, I'd put Kenny's technique as slightly above Joe's in every category except wrestling. However, I think Joe will his superior physical strength and wrestling to control Kenny, and that will make all the difference in this fight. Roger Huerta didn't have the skills to impose his will on Kenny, but Joe's toolbox is more than enough to get the job done. I see Joe winning by decision as Kenny is too smart to put his neck out there for Joe to grab.
And if I had to put money down on this fight card, I don't see any better bets than
Joe Daddy as a +160 underdog.
Nate Quarry vs. Demian Mai - Nate Quarry is a pretty solid all-around fighter and he'll be looking to put on a good show for the crowd given the fiasco that was his fight with Kalib Starnes at UFC 83. Demian Maia, on the other hand, will be going for his fourth straight submission-of-the-night award.
I'm looking at this fight in a fairly simply manner. If the match goes to the ground with any time for Maia to work, he's likely to lock Quarry in a submission. Maia's ground game is unbelievable and Quarry hasn't faced anyone even remotely as skilled.
I'll take Maia by submission.
Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory - I was bummed about Amir Sadollah being pulled ouf of UFC 91 due to a leg infection, but I perked right up when the Hazelett/McCrory fight was pushed up to the main card
Dustin "McLovin" Hazelett has one of the best ground games in the welterweight division, and I see him using McCrory as a stepping stone into the upper tier of the 170-pounders. McLovin by submission.
As for the other fights, I see:Gabriel Gonzaga > Josh Hendricks
Jorge Gurgel > Aaron Riley
Rafael Dos Anjos > Jeremy Stephens
Alvin Robinson > Mark Bocek
Matt Brown > Ryan Thomas